How AI Search Is Recommending Hiking Boots, Trail Shoes, and Outdoor Footwear: Monthly Trends

Executive Summary

Merrell remains the category leader for a third consecutive month, though its valid recommendation coverage has moved down each month, from 85.6% in July to 84.5% in August and 82.3% in September 2026. Salomon, in second place at 81.1% coverage in September, has also drifted down over the same period, and the distance between the top two brands has narrowed to roughly a point — the closest the two have been across this three-month series. Merrell's classification for the quarter remains stable, meaning the July-to-September change on its own does not register as a significant shift in the benchmark's series analysis, but the gap to Salomon is worth watching.

The most notable single-month move was Altra, whose coverage rose from 48.7% in August to 54.4% in September — a jump large enough to register as significant in the benchmark's series analysis. Measured against the July baseline, however, Altra's gain is smaller (49.5% to 54.4%, up 4.9 points), which falls just short of the threshold the benchmark uses to call a baseline-to-current shift significant. Altra's overall quarter classification remains stable even though August-to-September was a standout month. The move brought Altra to the same 54.4% coverage as La Sportiva, which itself declined from 57.1% in July, so the two brands are now tied for fourth place.

The two brands the benchmark's series analysis flags as significant decliners this quarter are Columbia Sportswear and Vasque. Vasque fell from 6.2% coverage in August to 2.0% in September, and is down from 4.4% in July — already the smallest tracked brand in the category, now smaller still. Columbia Sportswear fell from 18.0% in July to 13.9% in September; its August figure is unreliable due to a naming inconsistency in that month's data and is not used for trend purposes.

Across the broader July-to-September span, eight of the ten tracked brands moved down from their July baseline, while only Altra and Oboz rose. Of those eight declines, only Columbia Sportswear and Vasque were large enough to register as significant in the benchmark's series analysis; the rest reflect ordinary month-to-month variation.

This benchmark's September run began with 800 prompt-surface observations (529 unique questions) across the tracked AI/search surface universe. Of those, 800 mentioned a tracked brand or competitor; 782 were relevant and 18 were irrelevant. The metrics below use the 742 qualified observations that survived both qualification stages. The July baseline began with 800 total prompts (513 unique questions), of which 800 mentioned brands, 793 were relevant, and 755 were qualified.

Key Findings

Benchmark Context

The September report separates the raw collection universe from the qualified analysis set. Brand-level recommendation percentages are calculated within the qualified benchmark set of 742 observations, not the larger 800-prompt raw collection universe.

These stage-by-stage counts feed into the benchmark-level metrics below, which summarize how the category as a whole is trending across the quarter.

Benchmark-Level Metrics

The August intermediate month saw 754 qualified observations and a valid recommendation shortlist share of 87.4%, the highest point in the series before September's slight retreat.

AI Recommendation Trend

Category-Wide Coverage, July to September 2026

Merrell and Salomon remain a tight two-brand cluster at the top, with a wide drop to HOKA in third place. Altra's rise this month brought it level with La Sportiva at fourth, ahead of KEEN; no other brand moved enough against its July baseline to change the overall shape of the category.

What Changed This Month

Altra: A Significant Month, a Stable Quarter

Altra's valid recommendation coverage rose from 48.7% in August to 54.4% in September — a move large enough to register as significant in the benchmark's series analysis. Measured against the July baseline, the change is smaller: 49.5% to 54.4%, a gain of 4.9 points that falls short of the threshold the benchmark uses to call a baseline-to-current shift significant, so Altra's overall quarter classification remains stable. The move brought Altra to the same 54.4% coverage as La Sportiva, tied for fourth place and ahead of KEEN's 46.4%.

The brand's raw mention presence rose from 63.4% in July to 69.1% in September, and its top-three rate rose from 9.1% to 12.3% over the same period.

The distinction worth noting: Altra's rank-one rate remains low, at 1.6% in September, meaning it is being named in consideration sets far more often than it is being selected as the first recommendation.

Highest-priority diagnostic: which prompt types drove the September move, and where within those answers Altra shifted from also-ran to a named top-three option.

Vasque: Continued Erosion at the Category Edge

Vasque's coverage fell from 6.2% in August to 2.0% in September, and is down from 4.4% in July — a significant decline on both comparisons in the benchmark's series analysis.

The brand's presence has contracted sharply: its raw mention rate fell 2.8 points to 4.3% in September, so it now appears in only 32 of 742 observations. Within those, Vasque produced a valid recommendation in just 15 observations in September, down from 47 in August and 33 in July. Its rank-one count dropped to zero in September.

The distinction from other brands is that Vasque is losing at the presence stage, meaning AI systems are not mentioning it at sufficient scale to be considered for recommendation.

Highest-priority diagnostic: which AI surfaces and prompt families have stopped surfacing Vasque, and what those systems are recommending in its place.

Columbia Sportswear: A Significant Decline, With a Data Caveat

Columbia Sportswear's coverage fell from 18.0% in July to 13.9% in September, a significant decline in the benchmark's series analysis. The August figure for this brand is unreliable: that month's data recorded the brand under a shortened name, producing an apparent 0.0% reading for "Columbia Sportswear" while a separate entry, "Columbia," showed 28.1% coverage. Because of that naming inconsistency, the July-to-September comparison offers the clearest available trend line for this brand.

Using that comparison, Columbia Sportswear's raw mention presence fell 5.3 points to 24.7%, indicating that fewer AI answers are naming the brand at all. Its top-three and rank-one rates remained flat, meaning that when the brand was mentioned, its position within answers was broadly unchanged.

The distinction to note is between presence (down) and recommendation quality when present (flat); the movement is being driven by fewer mentions overall, not by weaker placement.

Highest-priority diagnostic: which surfaces account for the September presence loss, and whether the August naming issue affects any other month in the series.

HOKA: Falling Coverage Alongside a Rising Top-Three Rate

HOKA's coverage declined for a second consecutive month, from 75.2% in July to 73.5% in August and 72.8% in September. The two-month streak is down 2.4 points from baseline, though the benchmark's series analysis does not classify this as significant.

While its overall coverage slipped, HOKA's top-three rate rose from 37.0% in July to 43.1% in September, and its rank-one rate rose 1.5 points to 10.2% over the same period.

The distinction for HOKA is that it is winning a larger share of the consideration set even as it is being named in a slightly smaller share of all answers.

Highest-priority diagnostic: which surfaces are dropping HOKA from their answer set, and whether the improved top-three rate signals stronger positioning in the prompts where it does appear.

Merrell vs. Salomon: The Race at the Top Narrows

The category's most consequential movement is the narrowing margin between the top two brands. Merrell's coverage moved from 85.6% in July to 84.5% in August and 82.3% in September. Salomon's coverage moved from 83.3% to 83.8% to 81.1% over the same period. The gap between them is now roughly a point, down from more than two points in July.

Salomon leads outright on recommendation strength: its rank-one rate of 41.1% in September is the highest in the category, with 305 of 742 observations placing Salomon first, compared with Merrell's 133 rank-one placements.

The notable observation is not that either brand moved sharply on its own, but that their relative positions are converging as both drift down from July levels.

Highest-priority diagnostic: which surfaces and prompts drive Salomon's rank-one advantage, and where Merrell retains the coverage edge.

Buyer-Intent Interpretation

In September, all 742 qualified observations fell into the Brand Recommendation class, meaning the benchmark measured which brands AI systems surfaced and recommended in response to direct recommendation queries. No qualified observations fell into the Pricing & Value or Multi-Brand Comparison classes in this period. The public benchmark therefore describes recommendation share and presence, but it cannot yet answer how AI characterizes brands on price, value, or in direct head-to-head comparisons. Those questions require a separate analysis of pricing and comparative prompts.

Brand Opportunity Summary

The benchmark identifies where attention is warranted in September; a company-level analysis is needed to explain why these movements occurred.

Evidence Behind the Benchmark

The aggregate metrics are built from prompt-level observations, including the query, the AI surface used, the recommendation outcome, the rank of each brand mentioned, sentiment where expressed, and citations where exposed. Company-level analysis can go deeper into these prompt, competitor, surface, and evidence patterns. The presence of an external source in an AI answer is recorded as a data point, not automatically treated as proof that the source caused the recommendation.

Report-Specific Interpretation Notes

• Two tracked brands, Vasque and Columbia Sportswear, operate on small qualified observation counts, so their percentage movements can appear larger than their absolute change warrants. Vasque's 2.0% coverage in September represents just 15 valid recommendations; Columbia Sportswear's 13.9% represents 103.
• All brand-level recommendation percentages are calculated within the qualified benchmark set of 742 observations, not the larger 800-prompt raw collection universe.
• Columbia Sportswear's August figure is affected by a naming inconsistency in that month's data and should not be read as a real month-over-month swing; the July-to-September comparison is the reliable trend line for this brand.
• A significant single-month or baseline-to-current move identifies a signal worth investigating; it does not by itself establish the cause of that movement.
• This report is part of the AI Industry Market Discovery research program. See the methodology, metric definitions, and measurement standards.

Next Step

The Public Benchmark Shows Where a Brand Is Winning or Losing. A Company-Level Audit Shows Why.

The aggregate coverage percentage hides the specific decisions that drive it: which high-intent prompts a brand wins, which competitor AI systems name instead when a brand loses the recommendation, what attributes and use cases AI associates with each option, and which external sources and product details shape those answers across ChatGPT, Copilot, Gemini, Perplexity, AI Overviews, and AI Mode.

A company-specific AI visibility audit maps those prompt, surface, competitor, ranking, sentiment, and evidence-source patterns into a prioritized visibility strategy. Where the public benchmark shows a coverage shift like Altra's or Vasque's, the audit identifies the exact queries and surfaces behind it.

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