How AI Search Is Recommending Homeowners Protection: Monthly Trends

Executive Summary

American Home Shield holds the category lead at 86.9% valid recommendation coverage in September 2026, remaining stable against a near-perfect presence rate of 99.0%. The gap to the next brand, Liberty Home Guard at 76.0%, stands at 10.9 points, a gap that has widened over the quarter as Liberty Home Guard declined from its 81.0% baseline in July 2026 while American Home Shield held a stable course throughout: 87.2% in July, 85.7% in August, and 86.9% in September.

The category's strongest upward mover was Cinch Home Services, which rose 5.8 points from 52.1% in July 2026 to 57.9% in September 2026. This advance was concentrated in the current month, with a 6.2 point rise from August 2026 (51.7%) that exceeded normal month-to-month variation. The sharpest decliner was 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty, down 5.3 points from 22.5% to 17.2% over the same period, a significant decline that continued a two-month downward streak.

The broader market shows mixed movement, with AFC Home Warranty also posting a significant rise (up 6.1 points from 34.9% to 41.0%) while Liberty Home Guard declined a significant 5.0 points from 81.0% to 76.0% since July 2026.

Research scope: 800 prompts run across the tracked AI/search surfaces in both July and September 2026. July 2026 surfaced 389 unique questions, 800 brand or competitor mentions, 798 relevant prompts, 2 irrelevant prompts, and 631 qualified benchmark observations. September 2026 surfaced 391 unique questions, 800 brand or competitor mentions, 799 relevant prompts, 1 irrelevant prompt, and 717 qualified benchmark observations, across all six canonical AI surface families.

Key Findings

Benchmark Context

The report separates the raw collection universe from the qualified analysis set. Brand-level recommendation percentages are calculated within the qualified benchmark set.

Note on intermediate month: August 2026 qualified 659 observations from 418 unique questions, before the September run rose to 717.

Benchmark-Level Metrics

AI Recommendation Trend

A Stable Leader With a Tightening Chase Pack

American Home Shield has held the leadership position across all three months with no significant movement, while the middle of the category has become more fluid with two brands rising and two falling.

Several brands exceeded normal month-to-month variation in September 2026. Cinch Home Services and AFC Home Warranty both posted significant gains, while 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty and Liberty Home Guard recorded significant declines. These moves were not the product of a single category-wide shift but reflected distinct movements concentrated in different segments of the market.

What Changed This Month

Cinch Home Services

Cinch Home Services rose from 52.1% in July 2026 to 57.9% in September 2026, a 5.8 point gain that registered as significant. The sharper story is the current month: coverage moved up 6.2 points from August 2026 (51.7%), a single-month jump that also exceeded the significance threshold.

The rise was supported by underlying metrics. Raw mention presence climbed 6.6 points from 57.7% to 64.3%, while top-three recommendation placement rose 8.8 points, from 28.4% to 37.2%. Rank-one placement moved slightly downward by 1.1 points to 4.6%, a modest shift by comparison, indicating the gain came from broader shortlist inclusion rather than from capturing the top spot.

The pattern here is one of deepening visibility across the recommendation set rather than seizing the top position. The distinction between presence, coverage, and top placement matters for interpreting this gain. Highest-priority diagnostic: which prompt categories drove the top-three gains, and which competitor lost placement when Cinch appeared higher.

AFC Home Warranty

AFC Home Warranty gained 6.1 points from 34.9% in July 2026 to 41.0% in September 2026, a significant rise that continued a two-month upward streak. The August increase of 3.3 points to 38.2% was followed by a further 2.8 point rise in September, a steadier climb than Cinch's single-month surge.

Raw mention presence rose 8.2 points, from 38.5% to 46.7%, and top-three placement advanced 5.4 points, from 12.2% to 17.6%. Rank-one placement rose 0.7 points to 4.7%, a smaller move by comparison.

AFC's growth pattern resembles Cinch's in that it is visible across presence and top-three metrics, while rank-one capture lags. The brand is becoming a more consistent part of the recommendation conversation rather than seizing the top position. Highest-priority diagnostic: which surfaces and question types account for the 8.2 point presence gain, and whether the pattern is driven by new sources citing AFC.

Liberty Home Guard

Liberty Home Guard declined from 81.0% in July 2026 to 76.0% in September 2026, a 5.0 point drop that registered as significant. This downward movement spanned both months, with August down 3.2 points and September down another 1.8 points.

The most consequential supporting move was in top-three recommendation placement, which fell 7.2 points, from 61.2% to 54.0%. Raw mention presence declined 3.2 points, from 90.5% to 87.3%, a smaller move by comparison, and rank-one placement slipped 1.4 points to 13.2%.

Liberty Home Guard remains firmly in second place at 76.0%, a full 18.1 points ahead of Cinch Home Services in third. But the erosion appears concentrated in how often the brand appears in the upper tier of recommendations, rather than in overall presence. The brand is still mentioned in most answers but is less often placed in the top three. Highest-priority diagnostic: whether the top-three loss tracks specific competitor gains, particularly Cinch and AFC, and which prompts show Liberty falling from the top tier.

2-10 Home Buyers Warranty

2-10 Home Buyers Warranty fell from 22.5% in July 2026 to 17.2% in September 2026, a 5.3 point decline that was significant. The brand's top-three placements fell to 37 in September 2026, down from 44 in July 2026.

Raw mention presence fell 5.1 points, from 26.3% to 21.2%, indicating the brand is surfacing in fewer answers overall. Top-three placement declined 1.8 points to 5.2%, and rank-one placement eased 0.2 points to 0.7%, both smaller moves by comparison. The September valid recommendation count was only 123, down from 142 in July.

The category observation here is a widening gap between 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty and the brands above it. The gap to AFC Home Warranty widened from 12.4 points in July to 23.8 points in September, and the gap to Cinch Home Services grew from 29.6 to 40.7 points over the same period. Highest-priority diagnostic: which prompt segments drove the presence loss, and whether the decline is tied to how AI systems describe or rank the brand relative to AFC and Cinch.

Buyer-Intent Interpretation

All 717 qualified observations in September 2026 fell into the Brand Recommendation cluster, matching the pattern seen in July and August, when no observations were recorded in the Pricing & Value or Multi-Brand Comparison clusters. The public benchmark therefore answers which brands AI systems recommend outright, but it cannot yet speak to how AI frames pricing, value, or head-to-head comparisons among tracked brands. Those commercial questions remain open for company-level analysis.

Brand Opportunity Summary

The benchmark identifies where attention is warranted; a company-level analysis is needed to explain why.

Evidence Behind the Benchmark

The aggregate metrics are built from prompt-level observations covering query, surface, recommendation outcome, rank, sentiment, and citations where exposed. Company-level analysis can go deeper into prompt, competitor, surface, and evidence patterns. Source presence is not automatically treated as proof of causation.

About This Benchmark

This report is part of the LLM Authority Index AI Market Discovery research program.

• AI Industry Market Discovery Methodology
• AI Industry Market Discovery Metrics
• AI Industry Market Discovery Standards

Report-Specific Interpretation Notes

• Small-count movement warrants caution; brands with fewer than 50 valid recommendations, such as HomeServe and American Residential Warranty, can shift on a handful of prompt-level changes.
• The qualified denominator (717 in September 2026) differs from the raw collection universe (800 prompts); percentages reflect the qualified set only.
• Directional analysis identifies movement worth investigating, but month-over-month change does not by itself establish cause.

Next Step

The Public Benchmark Shows Where a Brand Is Winning or Losing. A Company-Level Audit Shows Why.

The aggregate percentages in this report point to questions that require a deeper look. Which high-intent prompts is a brand winning and which is it losing? When Cinch Home Services gains a top-three placement, which competitor loses that slot? What attributes do AI systems associate with Liberty Home Guard as its top-three placement declines? Which external sources are shaping the answers that drive these movements?

A company-specific AI visibility audit maps those prompt, surface, competitor, ranking, sentiment, and evidence-source patterns into a prioritized visibility strategy. It moves beyond the category view to the brand-level detail that explains why the numbers moved.

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