How AI Search Is Recommending Treadmills: Monthly Trends

Executive Summary

NordicTrack remains the category leader in valid recommendation coverage in September 2026 at 69.7%, though the leader's margin tightened. The gap to Sole Fitness, the second-place brand at 58.0%, now stands at 11.7 points, down from 13.4 points in August 2026. Both leaders eased from their July 2026 baselines, with NordicTrack down 2.5 points and Sole Fitness down 1.7 points across the full series.

The headline movement this month is ProForm, the only tracked brand the benchmark flags as a significant decliner. ProForm's valid recommendation coverage fell 11.5 points from 39.0% in July 2026 to 27.5% in September 2026, with the sharper 7.3-point drop arriving in the current month versus August 2026's 34.8%. Peloton was the strongest upward mover, climbing 5.3 points from 40.9% in July to 46.2% in September, though the benchmark does not flag that rise as significant.

The category also shows two instrument-level corrections worth noting. Horizon Fitness and Precor, which registered 0% coverage in August 2026, returned to 57.8% and 14.7% respectively in September 2026, near their July 2026 levels of 58.4% and 17.0%. These returns are flagged as significant recoveries in the current month, indicating the August readings were likely a measurement-side interruption rather than a genuine loss of AI visibility. Those brands' coverage in July, the series baseline, and September, the current month, tells a stable story.

Each monthly run begins with 800 prompt-surface observations (508 unique questions in July, 557 in August and September) across the benchmark's defined AI/search surface universe. Of those, 800 mentioned a tracked brand or competitor in each month; 661 were relevant and 139 were irrelevant in July, versus 612 relevant and 188 irrelevant in August, and 624 relevant and 176 irrelevant in September. The public metrics use the 464 qualified observations in July, 417 in August, and 429 in September that survive both qualification stages.

Key Findings

Benchmark Context

The report separates the raw collection universe from the qualified analysis set. Brand-level recommendation percentages are calculated within the qualified benchmark set.

The qualified benchmark spans six canonical AI surface families in both months and the same ten tracked brands. August 2026 recorded a measurement-side interruption for two brands, which is covered in the section below.

Benchmark-Level Metrics

The qualified set shrank by 35 observations from July to September. In the intermediate month of August, the count dipped to 417 before recovering to 429 in September, tied to fluctuating irrelevant-prompt counts across the period (139 in July, 188 in August, 176 in September). Both NordicTrack and Sole Fitness have eased from their July 2026 levels across the three-month series, while Peloton has gained steadily.

AI Recommendation Trend

A Two-Brand Lead That Is Slowly Compressing

The treadmill category maintains a clear two-brand lead in September 2026, with NordicTrack at 69.7% and Sole Fitness at 58.0%. The gap between them has narrowed modestly from July 2026, when the pair sat at 72.2% and 59.7%. Peloton's steady climb to 46.2% strengthens its position in the middle of the field, though it remains well behind third-place Horizon Fitness at 57.8%.

The category-level movement came from a combination of several smaller shifts rather than a single dominant change, with ProForm's decline being the one exception the benchmark treats as significant. Most brands moved within a narrow band of 0.3 to 5.5 points across the July-to-September window. The notable gaps section of the benchmark shows Peloton's lead over ProForm widened every month, from 1.9 points in July to 18.7 points in September, a function of Peloton's steady rise and ProForm's sharp fall.

What Changed This Month

NordicTrack: Steady Leadership

NordicTrack's valid recommendation coverage eased from 72.2% in July to 69.7% in September, a 2.5-point decline that the benchmark does not flag as significant. Its raw mention presence held above 96% in both months, meaning the brand was nearly omnipresent in qualified treadmill conversations.

Top-three recommendation rate dipped slightly from 60.6% to 60.4%, but rank-one rate rose from 48.9% to 52.0%, a 3.1-point gain. The brand's net sentiment score held steady at 0.8 in both months.

The distinction to notice is placement quality versus overall share: NordicTrack's coverage eased modestly while its rank-one appearances strengthened, suggesting the brand is being named the single best answer more often even as its broader recommendation footprint contracts slightly.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompt types are producing the incremental rank-one placements, and which evidence sources are associated with the slight contraction in overall coverage?

Peloton: The Strongest Upward Mover

Peloton rose 5.3 points from 40.9% in July to 46.2% in September, the largest positive move among tracked brands across the full series. The brand climbed in every month of the window: 40.9% to 42.4% to 46.2%. Its raw mention presence rose from 59.9% to 66.0%, a 6.1-point gain.

Top-three rate improved from 15.3% to 17.5%. Rank-one rate, however, moved the other way, slipping from 1.9% to 1.4%. The brand's net sentiment score held at 0.8 in both baseline and current months.

The pattern is one of broadening recommendation coverage rather than deepening dominance at the top of lists, with Peloton appearing in more recommendations while not converting that added presence into more single-best-answer wins.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompt types and surfaces are driving Peloton's expanded coverage, and what is keeping its rank-one rate from rising in step?

ProForm: The Only Significant Decliner

ProForm's valid recommendation coverage fell 11.5 points from 39.0% in July to 27.5% in September, the only significant decline the benchmark flags this month. The brand's raw mention presence dropped 11.7 points from 56.0% to 44.3%, and its top-three rate fell 6.3 points from 14.2% to 7.9%.

Rank-one appearances were already thin, moving from 0.4% in July to 0.2% in September, with just 1 rank-one placement across 429 qualified observations. Net sentiment slipped from 0.8 to 0.7. In absolute terms, ProForm held 118 valid recommendations in September versus 181 in July.

The movement combines a true visibility loss with a placement-quality loss: ProForm is appearing in fewer conversations and, when it does appear, is less likely to be placed in the top three. The brand's count of 118 valid recommendations gives the percentages a stable base, though the decline is real within it.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompt categories and AI surfaces account for the lost presence, and which competitor is absorbing ProForm's prior top-three placements?

Horizon Fitness and Precor: Instrument Interruption and Recovery

Horizon Fitness and Precor both registered 0% valid recommendation coverage in August 2026, which the benchmark flagged as significant at the time. In September 2026, both brands have returned near their July 2026 levels: Horizon Fitness at 57.8% versus a 58.4% baseline, and Precor at 14.7% versus a 17.0% baseline.

The August measurement recorded these two brands with zero presence across all surfaces, an all-or-nothing pattern that is characteristic of a measurement interruption rather than a gradual visibility loss. The September data, which shows the brands roughly where they stood in July, supports the interpretation that August was an instrument-side artifact.

The distinction to notice is the difference between a single-month data interruption and a genuine trend: with both brands back near baseline, the September readings align with continuity rather than decline. Horizon Fitness holds 248 valid recommendations in September versus 271 in July, and Precor holds 63 versus 79.

Highest-priority diagnostic: For both brands, the question is whether the August interruption affected any other measurement in that month and whether the September recovery is complete across all six AI surface families.

Life Fitness: Notable Downward Movement

Life Fitness fell 5.5 points from 27.2% in July to 21.7% in September, the second-largest decline among tracked brands after ProForm. The benchmark does not flag this as significant, as it stayed within the brand's normal variation band.

The brand's top-three rate slipped from 9.3% to 7.0%, while its rank-one rate moved in the opposite direction, rising from 2.4% to 3.3%. Raw mention presence fell 1.9 points from 44.8% to 42.9%. In absolute terms, Life Fitness held 93 valid recommendations in September versus 126 in July.

The pattern is a modest narrowing of coverage with a slight improvement in top-of-list performance, indicating the brand is being recommended in fewer conversations overall but holding its own in the strongest placements.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompt types account for the coverage decline, and what distinguishes the queries where Life Fitness still earns rank-one placement?

Bowflex and Echelon: Stable Second-Tier Brands

Bowflex eased 3.4 points from 27.4% in July to 24.0% in September, while Echelon eased 0.6 points from 21.1% to 20.5%. Neither movement is flagged as significant, and both brands have now declined for two consecutive months within a stable classification.

Bowflex's top-three rate improved from 7.8% to 10.0% across the series, even as its raw mention presence fell 1.9 points. Echelon's top-three rate slipped from 5.8% to 5.6% and its raw mention presence fell 4.9 points. In absolute terms, Bowflex held 103 valid recommendations in September versus 127 in July, and Echelon held 88 versus 98.

For Bowflex, the story is one of deepening placement quality within a slightly smaller footprint. For Echelon, the movement is a modest shrinkage of both presence and top-three share.

Highest-priority diagnostic: For Bowflex, which prompts are yielding the improved top-three placements? For Echelon, which surfaces account for the declining presence?

Buyer-Intent Interpretation

All qualified observations in July, August, and September fell into the Brand Recommendation cluster. The pricing-and-value and multi-brand comparison clusters registered zero observations in all three months. The public benchmark can currently speak to which treadmill brands AI systems recommend when a shopper asks for a recommendation, but it cannot yet answer which brand wins head-to-head comparisons or which is positioned as the best value. Those commercial questions remain open until the prompt universe expands to include them.

Brand Opportunity Summary

The benchmark identifies where attention is warranted; a company-level analysis is needed to explain why.

Evidence Behind the Benchmark

The aggregate metrics are built from prompt-level observations (query, surface, recommendation outcome, rank, sentiment, and citations where exposed). Company-level analysis can go deeper into prompt, competitor, surface, and evidence patterns. Source presence is not automatically treated as proof of causation.

About This Benchmark

This report is part of the AI Market Discovery research program.

• AI Industry Market Discovery Methodology
• AI Industry Market Discovery Metrics
• AI Industry Market Discovery Standards

Report-Specific Interpretation Notes

• The qualified denominator (429 observations in September) differs from the raw collection universe (800 prompts); all percentages are calculated on the qualified set.
• August 2026 recorded an instrument-side interruption for Horizon Fitness and Precor; September readings are interpreted against the July baseline for continuity.
• The significant decline for ProForm is a directional flag, not a causal conclusion. It identifies a movement worth investigating, not the reason for it.
• Small observation counts for brands like Schwinn (30 valid recommendations) and Precor (63 valid recommendations) mean their percentages are more sensitive to small absolute changes than larger brands.

Next Step

The Public Benchmark Shows Where a Brand Is Winning or Losing. A Company-Level Audit Shows Why.

The aggregate percentages in this report raise questions that the benchmark alone cannot answer: which high-intent prompts is a brand winning, which competitor takes the recommendation when a brand loses, what attributes do AI systems associate with each option, and which external sources shape those answers. For ProForm's decline, for example, the next step is identifying the specific prompts and surfaces where the brand lost ground. For Peloton's rise, the question is which evidence sources are driving the broader placement.

A company-specific AI visibility audit maps those prompt, surface, competitor, ranking, sentiment, and evidence-source patterns into a prioritized visibility strategy.

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