How AI Search Is Recommending Auto Warranty: Monthly Trends

Executive Summary

Endurance remains the category leader in AI-driven auto warranty recommendations, holding 84.0% valid recommendation coverage in September 2026. The gap to second-place CarShield narrowed to 9.0 points, with CarShield at 75.0% and CARCHEX close behind at 73.2%. This three-brand top tier is tightly clustered compared to August 2026, when the spread from Endurance to third-place CarShield spanned 20.5 points — nearly twice September's 10.8-point spread across the top three.

The strongest upward mover this month was CarShield, up 6.7 points from August to September 2026, a significant gain that reverses a one-month decline and places it in second position. CARCHEX recorded the sharpest monthly decline in the category, down 7.3 points from 80.5% to 73.2%, its second consecutive monthly decline after peaking at 81.8% in July. Endurance also declined, down 4.8 points from 88.8% to 84.0%, its second consecutive month of decline, though it remains the category leader by a comfortable margin.

The category registered genuine movement this month, driven by a combination of significant shifts rather than a single event. Eight brands remain classified as significant risers since the May 2026 baseline, and no brand is classified as a significant decliner over that full window. The competitive structure has stabilized into a clear three-tier market: Endurance at the top, CarShield and CARCHEX in a strong second tier, and a long tail of smaller brands, though several mid-tier brands are now pulling back from their July peaks.

Each monthly run begins with 800 prompt-surface observations (430 unique questions in July 2026, 459 in August 2026, and 419 in September 2026) across the benchmark's defined AI/search surface universe. Of those, 800 mentioned a tracked brand or competitor in each month with funnel data; 754 were relevant and 46 were irrelevant in July 2026, 763 were relevant and 37 were irrelevant in August 2026, and 780 were relevant and 20 were irrelevant in September 2026. The May 2026 baseline collected 714 total prompts with no separate funnel stages. The public metrics use the 610 qualified observations in July 2026, 625 in August 2026, and 679 in September 2026 that survive both qualification stages.

Key Findings

Benchmark Context

The report separates the raw collection universe from the qualified analysis set. Brand-level recommendation percentages are calculated within the qualified benchmark set.

July and August 2026 served as transition months, with 610 and 625 qualified observations respectively. The May 2026 baseline used a different collection funnel without separate relevance stages, so raw collection volume is not directly comparable, though the recommendation-coverage rates themselves remain comparable across the series.

Benchmark-Level Metrics

The September 2026 run shows a lower recommendation-shaped answer share than the August peak of 37.0%, while the valid recommendation shortlist share of 83.2% also sits below August's 89.1%. The qualification rate has drifted downward across the past three months even as the observation count has risen, with July 2026 showing the highest shortlist share at 89.5%.

AI Recommendation Trend

Endurance leads a three-brand top tier, with the competitive gap between the top three narrowing

September 2026 shows a three-brand top tier now clustered far more closely than in August. Endurance leads at 84.0%, with CarShield at 75.0% and CARCHEX at 73.2%, a spread of 10.8 points from first to third place. In August 2026, the spread from Endurance (88.8%) to third-place CarShield (68.3%) was 20.5 points, nearly twice as wide.

Eight brands exceeded normal month-to-month variation from May to September 2026: American Dream Auto Protect, CARCHEX, CarShield, Endurance, everything breaks, Olive, Omega Auto Care, and Toco Warranty. The category-level movement came from the combination of several significant shifts, including CarShield's gain, CARCHEX's and Endurance's declines, and continued pullbacks at Omega Auto Care and Toco Warranty. No single brand drove the overall pattern.

What Changed This Month

Endurance

Endurance remains the category leader but recorded its second consecutive significant monthly decline, falling 4.8 points from 88.8% in August 2026 to 84.0% in September 2026. Across the full series, Endurance entered the benchmark at 89.7% in July 2026 and has now declined in both subsequent months, a two-month downward streak that brings its coverage to its lowest level since entering the benchmark.

The brand's rank-one rate also softened, from 83.0% in August to 77.8% in September, with 528 rank-one placements from 679 qualified observations. Raw mention presence remains near-universal at 99.9% in September, meaning AI systems still surface Endurance in almost every qualifying response, but the brand is now less frequently placed as the top recommendation.

The distinction that matters: Endurance's presence is effectively saturated, so the erosion is happening in placement quality rather than visibility. The brand's top-three rate of 80.8% remains the highest in the category, but the gap to second place is narrowing.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompts shifted Endurance from rank-one to a lower placement between August and September, and which brands captured those top positions?

CarShield

CarShield was the strongest upward mover this month, rising 6.7 points from 68.3% in August 2026 to 75.0% in September 2026, a significant gain that reverses a one-month decline and moves the brand into second position. This marks the beginning of a new upward streak after CarShield fell from its July peak of 72.6%.

The brand's top-three rate climbed to 63.5% in September, the second-highest in the category behind Endurance. Yet CarShield recorded zero rank-one placements in September, down from 1 in August and 3 in July 2026. Raw mention presence rose to 91.2%, indicating the brand is surfaced broadly, but it is consistently placed second or third rather than first.

The distinction between presence and top placement is sharpest for CarShield: it appears in over 9 of 10 qualifying responses but is never the single best recommendation according to AI systems. Negative visibility has also improved, falling from 5.0% in August to 2.2% in September.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which competitor takes the rank-one position when CarShield appears, and what attributes drive that ordering?

CARCHEX

CARCHEX recorded a significant decline this month, falling 7.3 points from 80.5% in August 2026 to 73.2% in September 2026. This is the second consecutive monthly decline for the brand, which peaked at 81.8% in July 2026. Despite the pullback, CARCHEX remains up 43.0 points from its May 2026 baseline of 30.2%, and it holds third position.

The brand's rank-one rate fell to 0.6% in September, down from 1.6% in August and 0.8% in July, with just 4 rank-one placements from 679 qualified observations. Average recommended rank slipped to 3.1, indicating that when CARCHEX appears, it is increasingly placed outside the top three positions.

The pattern across the past three months shows CARCHEX's coverage and top-three rate both declining from their July peaks, while its placement quality has not improved. The brand is holding a strong second-tier position but is not converting its broad presence into higher placement.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompts have shifted CARCHEX from top-three placement to lower positions across the past two months?

Olive

Olive held steady this month, with coverage of 45.7% in September 2026 essentially flat against August's 44.6%, a 1.1-point gain that does not exceed normal variation. This stability follows a significant decline of 5.7 points from July to August. On the full-series view, Olive remains up 24.1 points from its May 2026 baseline of 21.6%, and it holds fourth position with no brand close behind.

The brand's top-three rate declined to 15.9% in September from 20.2% in August, a 4.3-point drop. Rank-one placements improved slightly to 8 from 7 in August, with a rank-one rate of 1.2%. Raw mention presence rose to 49.2% in September, its highest level of the series.

The divergence between rising presence and falling top-three placement is the notable signal for Olive. The brand is being mentioned more often in September than in August, but those mentions are less frequently resulting in top-three recommendations, suggesting the brand's visibility is broadening while its recommendation quality softens.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompts now mention Olive without placing it in the top three, and where has that placement gone?

Omega Auto Care and Toco Warranty

Omega Auto Care and Toco Warranty both recorded significant declines this month, continuing downward streaks that began after their July peaks. Omega Auto Care fell 4.9 points from 24.5% in August to 19.6% in September, while Toco Warranty dropped 5.3 points from 14.4% to 9.1%. Both brands had been classified as significant risers since May but are now well below their July highs of 27.7% and 21.3% respectively.

Omega Auto Care's raw mention presence held at 27.8% in September, but its top-three rate fell to 6.2% from 7.2% in August, and it recorded zero rank-one placements for the second consecutive month. Toco Warranty's presence declined more sharply, with raw mention presence falling to 10.8% from 15.2%, and its valid recommendation count dropped from 90 in August to 62 in September, a substantial reduction in absolute terms.

These two brands illustrate a pattern of post-surge normalization across the category. Both spiked in July 2026 and have now declined for two consecutive months, though both remain above their May baselines. The distinction between a lasting gain and a temporary surge is the key question for both brands.

Highest-priority diagnostic: For Omega Auto Care, which prompts stopped producing recommendations between August and September? For Toco Warranty, which prompt categories show the brand disappearing from responses entirely?

Buyer-Intent Interpretation

In September 2026, all 679 qualified observations fell into the Brand Recommendation cluster. There were no qualified observations in the Pricing & Value or Multi-Brand Comparison clusters, consistent with August 2026. The public benchmark therefore does not currently measure how AI systems handle head-to-head comparisons or pricing-based inquiries for auto warranty providers. Commercial questions at those stages, such as which provider offers the best value or how two specific brands compare, remain outside the scope of the current public data. The benchmark is measuring which brands AI systems surface in general recommendation queries, not which brands win on price or in direct comparison.

Brand Opportunity Summary

The benchmark identifies where attention is warranted across the category; a company-level analysis is needed to explain why each brand holds its current position.

Evidence Behind the Benchmark

The aggregate metrics are built from prompt-level observations capturing the query, the AI surface used, the recommendation outcome, the rank of each brand mentioned, the sentiment expressed, and the citations exposed where available. Company-level analysis can go deeper into prompt, competitor, surface, and evidence patterns to explain the movements documented here. Source presence in AI responses is not automatically treated as proof of causation for a brand's recommendation position.

About This Benchmark

This report is part of the LLM Authority Index AI Market Discovery research program.

• AI Industry Market Discovery Methodology
• AI Industry Market Discovery Metrics
• AI Industry Market Discovery Standards

Report-Specific Interpretation Notes

• Movement is directional analysis, not confirmed cause. A change in recommendation coverage identifies where further investigation is warranted.
• Brand-level percentages are calculated within the qualified benchmark set of 679 observations in September 2026, not the 800 raw prompt-surface observations collected.
• Small-count brands like Select Auto Protect (0 valid recommendations in September), Concord Auto Protect (0), and Protect My Car (8) require extreme caution in interpreting percentage movements.
• The baseline month of May 2026 used a different collection funnel than subsequent months; cumulative movements should be read with this instrument difference in mind.
• Multiple brands show two-month downward streaks from July peaks; distinguishing lasting repositioning from post-surge normalization requires prompt-level analysis.

Next Step

The Public Benchmark Shows Where a Brand Is Winning or Losing. A Company-Level Audit Shows Why.

Beneath the aggregate percentages sit the prompts that matter most: which high-intent questions does a brand win, which competitor takes the recommendation when it loses, what attributes does the AI associate with each option, and which external sources shape those answers. The public benchmark shows that Endurance leads with 84.0% coverage while CarShield closed the gap to 9.0 points, but it does not explain which evidence sources drive those positions or which prompts create the remaining gaps.

A company-specific AI visibility audit maps those prompt, surface, competitor, ranking, sentiment, and evidence-source patterns into a prioritized visibility strategy. It isolates where a brand's message is being shaped by third-party sources, which competitor narratives appear in the responses a brand loses, and what specific phrases or attributes lead to rank-one placement or its absence.

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