How AI Search Is Recommending Grocery Delivery Services: Monthly Trends

Executive Summary

Amazon remains the category leader in August 2026, with valid recommendation coverage at 61.4%, a level now essentially matched by Instacart at the same 61.4% rate. Since the July 2026 baseline, when Amazon led at 67.3% and Instacart followed at 65.7%, the two brands have converged as both declined over the month covered by this report.

Shipt recorded the largest movement in the category: valid recommendation coverage fell from 43.7% in July 2026 to 33.6% in August 2026, a drop of 10.1 points. Amazon, FreshDirect, Gopuff, Misfits Market, Thrive Market, and Imperfect Foods also declined between the two months tracked in this report.

Walmart Pet Care was the only tracked brand to gain coverage during the month, moving from 8.3% to 9.1%. Instacart and Kroger Delivery held broadly steady. Across the ten tracked brands, most measured declines outpaced the category's single gain.

Each monthly benchmark run begins with 800 prompt-surface observations (538 unique questions in July 2026, 592 in August 2026) across the defined AI/search surface universe. All 800 prompts referenced a tracked brand or competitor in both months; 652 were judged relevant and 148 irrelevant in July 2026, while August 2026 recorded 650 relevant and 150 irrelevant. The public benchmark metrics use the 533 qualified observations from July 2026 and 541 from August 2026 that survived both qualification stages.

Key Findings

Benchmark Context

The report separates the raw collection universe from the qualified analysis set. Brand-level recommendation percentages are calculated within the qualified benchmark set. The comparison spans July 2026 (533 qualified observations) and August 2026 (541 qualified observations).

Benchmark-Level Metrics

The following metrics summarize category-level movement across the same two months.

The share of recommendation-shaped answers rose while the share of valid recommendation shortlists fell — a pattern in which the benchmark recorded more responses framed as recommendations, but fewer of those responses producing a qualified shortlist, between the two months. The qualified surface breadth was unchanged at six, covering ChatGPT, Copilot, Gemini, Perplexity, AI Overviews, and AI Mode.

AI Recommendation Trend

The two leaders have converged, and the wider field has contracted

Amazon and Instacart now hold identical 61.4% valid recommendation coverage, a convergence driven by Amazon's 5.9-point decline and Instacart's 4.3-point decline over the same period. Every other tracked brand, with the exception of Walmart Pet Care, also moved down from the July 2026 baseline.

Seven of the ten tracked brands recorded coverage declines from July 2026 to August 2026, which points to a broader change in the category's measured recommendation output rather than a shift confined to the two leading brands.

What Changed This Month

Amazon

Amazon retained the category lead, but its valid recommendation coverage fell from 67.3% in July 2026 to 61.4% in August 2026, a decline of 5.9 points. The drop was accompanied by a 9.7-point fall in top-three recommendation rate, to 44.0%, and a 2.9-point fall in rank-one rate, to 4.2%.

Amazon's raw mention presence held roughly steady, at 93.2% in August 2026 compared with 92.3% in July 2026, meaning the brand was named about as often but recommended less frequently and less prominently. Its net sentiment score also held roughly steady, near 0.8 in both months, so the decline appears specific to recommendation placement rather than brand perception.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompt types shifted Amazon out of the top recommendation, and which alternative received the recommendation credit instead?

Instacart

Instacart's coverage fell from 65.7% in July 2026 to 61.4% in August 2026, a decline of 4.3 points that remained within the category's normal month-to-month range. Supporting metrics moved more sharply: top-three recommendation rate fell 10.1 points to 46.2%, and rank-one rate fell 6.8 points to 29.0%.

Despite that, Instacart still secured the rank-one recommendation in 157 of 541 qualified observations in August 2026 — the brand remains the most common first answer in the category, but the depth of its presence within the top three narrowed.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Why did Instacart's top-three placements narrow faster than its overall coverage, and which competitor absorbed those positions?

Shipt

Shipt recorded the largest decline in the category in August 2026: valid recommendation coverage fell 10.1 points, to 33.6% from 43.7% in July 2026. Raw mention presence fell 6.9 points, to 59.7%, and top-three recommendation rate fell 4.3 points, to 8.1%.

Shipt's absolute valid recommendation count fell to 182 in August 2026 from 233 in July 2026, confirming a decline in output rather than a change in the qualified-observation denominator. Its rank-one rate held roughly steady, near 0.5% to 0.9% across the two months, meaning Shipt was rarely the lead answer in either month but lost ground as a consistent secondary recommendation.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which specific recommendation prompts stopped including Shipt, and where did those recommendations redirect?

FreshDirect and Gopuff

FreshDirect and Gopuff both recorded coverage declines in August 2026, though the underlying pattern differed. FreshDirect fell 9.0 points to 22.9%, alongside lower raw mention presence and rank-one rate, though its top-three rate rose 1.2 points. Gopuff fell 8.6 points to 13.9%, with a 5.6-point drop in raw mention presence to 27.4% and a roughly flat top-three rate.

FreshDirect's absolute valid recommendation count fell to 124 from 170, and Gopuff's fell to 75 from 120. Neither brand lost its ability to appear in a top-three list, but both were recommended in fewer qualified observations overall.

Highest-priority diagnostic: For FreshDirect, which surfaces stopped surfacing the brand; for Gopuff, which prompts reduced both mention and recommendation entirely?

Misfits Market and Thrive Market

Both brands recorded coverage declines in August 2026, to 24.4% and 32.0% respectively, down 7.5 and 7.6 points from July 2026. Misfits Market's top-three rate rose 2.9 points, to 7.0%, even as its overall coverage fell, while Thrive Market's top-three rate held roughly flat.

The distinction matters: Misfits Market was recommended in fewer absolute observations (132 vs. 170) but appeared higher within those recommendations — fewer but stronger placements. Thrive Market was recommended in fewer observations (173 vs. 211) with no change in placement depth.

Highest-priority diagnostic: For Misfits Market, which prompts still place it in the top three; for Thrive Market, which prompts removed it from shortlists entirely?

Walmart Pet Care and the Stable Tail

Walmart Pet Care was the only brand to gain coverage in August 2026, up 0.8 points to 9.1% from 8.3% in July 2026. Its absolute valid recommendation count rose to 49 from 44. Instacart and Kroger Delivery were both classified as stable for the month; Kroger Delivery's 3.2-point decline to 10.9% remained within the category's normal range. These three brands accounted for most of the smaller observation counts in the category.

Highest-priority diagnostic: For Walmart Pet Care, which surface produced the additional recommendations; for Kroger Delivery, whether its decline continues in future months or reflects normal variation.

Buyer-Intent Interpretation

In August 2026, all 541 qualified observations fell into the brand recommendation cluster. The pricing-and-value and multi-brand comparison clusters had zero qualified observations in both July and August 2026.

The public benchmark therefore measures which brand AI systems recommend most often, but it cannot yet answer commercial questions about price, value, or direct comparison between two named options. The absence of these clusters is itself a finding: the most decision-relevant prompts, those that ask for a comparison or a value judgment, were not represented in the qualified set this month.

Brand Opportunity Summary

The benchmark identifies where attention is warranted; a company-level analysis is needed to explain why.

Evidence Behind the Benchmark

The aggregate metrics are built from prompt-level observations (query, surface, recommendation outcome, rank, sentiment, and citations where exposed). Company-level analysis can go deeper into prompt, competitor, surface, and evidence patterns. Source presence is not automatically treated as proof of causation.

About This Benchmark

This report is part of the LLM Authority Index AI Market Discovery research program.

• AI Industry Market Discovery
• AI Industry Market Discovery Methodology
• AI Industry Market Discovery Metrics
• AI Industry Market Discovery Standards

Report-Specific Interpretation Notes

• This month's coverage declines affected seven of ten brands, but the qualified set (541 observations) is not large; individual brand counts can be low. Brands with small counts, such as Imperfect Foods at 6.8% coverage and Walmart Pet Care at 9.1%, should be read with that in mind.
• The qualified denominator (541) is smaller than the raw collection volume (800). Brand-level percentages reflect the qualified set only, not the full surface universe.
• This analysis identifies changes worth investigating; it does not by itself establish the cause of those changes.

Next Step

The Public Benchmark Shows Where a Brand Is Winning or Losing. A Company-Level Audit Shows Why.

The aggregate percentages in this report do not yet answer the questions that matter most for strategy. Which high-intent prompts is each brand winning? When a brand loses a recommendation, which competitor takes its place? What attributes does the AI associate with each option, and which external sources are shaping those answers? The public benchmark signals where attention is warranted, but it requires a company-level audit to explain the mechanism.

A company-specific AI visibility audit maps these prompt, surface, competitor, ranking, sentiment, and evidence-source patterns into a prioritized visibility strategy. It turns the benchmark's movement into a clear account of why a brand rose, fell, or held, and where its next opportunity sits.

Request an AI visibility audit