How AI Search Is Recommending Surety Bonds: Monthly Trends

Executive Summary

Travelers leads the surety bond category in September 2026 with 46.6% valid recommendation coverage, little changed from the 51.7% recorded in the July 2026 baseline. The Hartford holds second place at 42.9%, also close to its July 2026 baseline of 52.0%. The gap between the two leaders narrowed to 3.7 points in September, compared with 5.9 points in August 2026, but on a baseline-to-current basis both brands are classified as stable — neither move from July to September cleared the threshold for a significant shift.

That stability sits on top of a sharp month-over-month swing. Travelers rose to 61.2% coverage in August 2026 before falling to 46.6% in September, a Down 14.6-point move that was significant relative to the prior month. The Hartford followed the same pattern, rising to 55.3% in August before falling to 42.9% in September, a Down 12.4-point move that was also significant relative to the prior month. Both brands are back close to where they started the three-month series, so the August spike did not hold, but the category's leadership order has not changed.

The clearer baseline-to-current story sits in the middle of the table. CNA fell from 25.1% valid recommendation coverage in July 2026 to 16.4% in September 2026, a Down 8.7-point move that was significant against the July baseline. The brand was briefly re-tagged as CNA Surety in August 2026, where it registered 16.4% coverage, then returned to the CNA label in September. Merchants Bonding Company fell from 4.8% in July 2026 to 1.1% in September 2026, a Down 3.7-point move that was significant against the baseline, and the brand has now declined for two consecutive months from its July starting point.

No brand registered a significant rise against the July 2026 baseline in September 2026. Two brands — CNA and Merchants Bonding Company — were flagged as significant decliners on the primary coverage metric this period.

Each monthly run begins with 800 prompt-surface observations (569 unique questions in July 2026; 616 in August 2026; 586 in September 2026) across the benchmark's defined AI/search surface universe. Of those, 800 mentioned a tracked brand or competitor in all three months; 315 were relevant and 485 irrelevant in July 2026, versus 188 relevant and 612 irrelevant in August 2026, and 241 relevant and 559 irrelevant in September 2026. The public metrics use the 271 qualified observations in July 2026, 152 in August 2026, and 189 in September 2026 that survive both qualification stages.

Key Findings

Benchmark Context

The report separates the raw collection universe from the qualified analysis set. Brand-level recommendation percentages are calculated within the qualified benchmark set.

Benchmark-Level Metrics

The following figures summarize benchmark-wide movement independent of any single brand.

The intermediate month of August 2026 saw the qualified set drop to 152 observations from 271 in July, then recover to 189 in September. The variation in qualified observations across months is a benchmark collection change, not a brand-level movement; all percentages are calculated within each month's own qualified set. The companies tracked count reflects the CNA and CNA Surety labels resolving back to a single CNA entry in September 2026, reducing the tracked list from 10 to 9.

AI Recommendation Trend

Leadership Order Holds as the Top Two Revert Toward Baseline

Travelers and The Hartford both moved sharply between August and September, but neither move was significant against the July 2026 baseline, and the two brands retain the same first- and second-place positions they held at the start of the series. CNA and Merchants Bonding Company are the only two brands whose September 2026 standing is a significant decline from July 2026. No brand posted a significant increase against the baseline this period.

What Changed This Month

Travelers

Travelers fell from 61.2% valid recommendation coverage in August 2026 to 46.6% in September 2026, a Down 14.6-point move that was significant. From the July 2026 baseline, the brand is down 5.1 points from 51.7%.

Presence remained high even as coverage fell. Travelers was present in 167 of 189 qualified observations in September 2026, an 88.4% raw mention presence rate, effectively flat against the 89.3% in July 2026. The brand recorded 88 valid recommendations in September 2026. Its top-three rate eased from 32.8% in July 2026 to 27.0%, while its rank-one rate rose slightly to 8.5% from 8.1% in July 2026.

The distinction to notice is that Travelers lost recommendation coverage while maintaining near-universal presence. The brand is still being mentioned in almost every answer, but those mentions are converting to valid recommendations less often than in August 2026.

Highest-priority diagnostic: which prompt families shifted from producing a Travelers recommendation in August 2026 to producing a different outcome in September 2026.

The Hartford

The Hartford declined from 55.3% valid recommendation coverage in August 2026 to 42.9% in September 2026, a Down 12.4-point move that was significant. From the July 2026 baseline, the brand is down 9.1 points from 52.0%.

The Hartford was present in 155 of 189 qualified observations in September 2026, an 82.0% raw mention presence rate. The brand recorded 81 valid recommendations in September 2026. Its top-three rate eased to 32.8% from 34.7% in July 2026, and its rank-one rate slipped from 19.6% to 18.0%.

The distinction to notice is that The Hartford's presence remained strong while its coverage contracted. The brand retains a recommendation slot in a substantial share of qualified observations, but the frequency of that recommendation has declined across the three-month series.

Highest-priority diagnostic: which surfaces account for the coverage decline, and whether the drop is concentrated on specific bond-type queries.

CNA

CNA fell from 25.1% valid recommendation coverage in July 2026 to 16.4% in September 2026, a Down 8.7-point move that was significant against the baseline. The brand was re-tagged as CNA Surety in August 2026, where it registered 16.4% coverage, then returned to the CNA label in September 2026.

CNA was present in 69 of 189 qualified observations in September 2026, down from 117 present observations in July 2026. The brand recorded 31 valid recommendations in September 2026. Its top-three rate declined from 8.1% in July 2026 to 5.8%, and its rank-one rate slipped from 3.7% to 3.2%.

CNA's coverage decline is real and not merely a labeling artifact. The present-count observations fell from 117 in July 2026 to 69 in September 2026, a genuine reduction in measured presence across the series.

Highest-priority diagnostic: which surfaces and query types drove the presence decline, and whether the CNA label is now consistently applied across all six AI surface families.

Merchants Bonding Company

Merchants Bonding Company declined from 4.8% valid recommendation coverage in July 2026 to 1.1% in September 2026, a Down 3.7-point move that was significant against the baseline. The brand has now declined for two consecutive months from its July baseline.

Merchants Bonding Company was present in 18 of 189 qualified observations in September 2026, down from 32 present observations in July 2026. The brand recorded only 2 valid recommendations in September 2026. Its top-three rate fell to 0.0% from 0.7% in July 2026, and its rank-one rate remained at 0.0%.

Merchants Bonding Company retains a modest presence but has lost nearly all recommendation conversion. The brand is mentioned in answers but rarely surfaced as a valid recommendation.

Highest-priority diagnostic: which queries still produce a mention, and which competitor is capturing the recommendation slots the brand previously held.

Surety1

Surety1 fell to 0.0% valid recommendation coverage in September 2026, down from 0.7% in July 2026 and 1.3% in August 2026. The brand recorded zero present observations and zero valid recommendations in September 2026.

The August 2026 month showed 2 present observations and 2 valid recommendations. The September 2026 result is a complete absence from the qualified set. The raw mention presence rate fell from 2.2% in July 2026 to 0.0% in September 2026.

Surety1 operates from a very small base, making its movements inherently more volatile. The absolute counts are small, with zero valid recommendations in September 2026.

Highest-priority diagnostic: whether the disappearance is specific to certain surfaces or query types, and which competitors are appearing in the answers where Surety1 was previously present.

Buyer-Intent Interpretation

All 189 qualified observations in September 2026 fell into the Brand Recommendation class. There were no qualified observations in the Pricing & Value or Multi-Brand Comparison classes, meaning the public benchmark in this month cannot speak to how AI systems compare surety bond providers on cost, value, or direct head-to-head tradeoffs.

The practical consequence is that the September 2026 results answer "which brand does AI recommend" but not "why" or "at what price." Brands that win on coverage may not be winning the pricing conversation, and the benchmark cannot yet measure that distinction.

Brand Opportunity Summary

The benchmark identifies where attention is warranted; a company-level analysis is needed to explain why.

Evidence Behind the Benchmark

The aggregate metrics are built from prompt-level observations (query, surface, recommendation outcome, rank, sentiment, and citations where exposed). Company-level analysis can go deeper into prompt, competitor, surface, and evidence patterns. Source presence is not automatically treated as proof of causation.

About This Benchmark

This report is part of the LLM Authority Index AI Market Discovery research program.

• AI Industry Market Discovery Index
• AI Industry Market Discovery Methodology
• AI Industry Market Discovery Metrics
• AI Industry Market Discovery Standards

Report-Specific Interpretation Notes

• Movement between months identifies changes worth investigating; it does not by itself establish the cause of those changes.
• The qualified denominator differs between months (271 in July 2026, 152 in August 2026, 189 in September 2026); percentages are calculated within each month's own set.
• Small counts for brands like Surety1, Old Republic Surety, and Merchants Bonding Company make their percentage movements inherently more volatile.
• The CNA and CNA Surety labeling resolved back to a single CNA entry in September 2026; the underlying presence trend has declined across all three months.

Next Step

The Public Benchmark Shows Where a Brand Is Winning or Losing. A Company-Level Audit Shows Why.

The aggregate percentage does not answer the questions beneath it: which high-intent prompts are won, which competitor takes the recommendation when a brand loses, what attributes AI associates with each option, and which external sources shape those answers. A brand at 46.6% coverage and a brand at 0.0% both need to know the specific queries and surfaces driving their results.

A company-specific AI visibility audit maps those prompt, surface, competitor, ranking, sentiment, and evidence-source patterns into a prioritized visibility strategy.

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