How AI Search Is Recommending Pest Control Services: Monthly Trends

Executive Summary

Orkin remains the category leader in September 2026, but its hold is visibly loosening. Orkin's valid recommendation coverage fell to 43.8%, down 8.3 points from August 2026 (52.1%) and down 14.0 points from July 2026 (57.8%). Terminix sits just 1.5 points behind at 42.3%, following its own 8.3-point drop from August (50.6%). Both leaders recorded significant declines for the second consecutive month, marking a two-month streak that has compressed the top of the category from a wide 57.8% and 56.8% pairing in July to a much tighter 43.8% and 42.3% in September.

The category showed broad, significant movement this month, with eight of ten tracked brands classified as significant decliners against their July baselines. Two notable exceptions emerged: Massey Services rose to 4.6% coverage from 3.8% in July and 2.5% in August, and Hawx Pest Control climbed to 3.7% from 1.9% in July, extending a two-month upward streak. No brand registered as a significant riser, meaning the dominant story is a wide contraction in recommendation shortlist frequency rather than one brand displacing another.

The gap between the two leaders and the rest of the field has narrowed in percentage terms, but the leaders still hold a commanding position. Orkin at 43.8% leads Aptive in third place (16.3%) by 27.5 points. The structural pattern worth watching is that the leaders' decline coincides with a shrinking share of answers producing valid recommendation shortlists at all, a mechanical shift that affected most brands together.

Each monthly run begins with 800 prompt-surface observations (510 unique questions in July 2026; 573 in August 2026; 536 in September 2026) across the benchmark's defined AI/search surface universe. Of those, 800 mentioned a tracked brand or competitor in July and September (799 in August); 744 were relevant and 56 irrelevant in July, versus 765 relevant and 34 irrelevant in August, and 764 relevant and 36 irrelevant in September. The public metrics use the 426 qualified observations in July, 441 in August, and 454 in September that survive both qualification stages.

Key Findings

Benchmark Context

The report separates the raw collection universe from the qualified analysis set. Brand-level recommendation percentages are calculated within the qualified benchmark set, which excludes prompts that did not meet relevance or eligibility standards.

The August 2026 run collected 573 unique questions, the highest of the three months, with 799 brand mentions, 765 relevant prompts, 34 irrelevant prompts, and 441 qualified observations.

Benchmark-Level Metrics

The metrics below summarize the qualified observation set across the baseline and current months and show why coverage contracted even as the observation count grew.

The valid recommendation shortlist share dropped 13.0 points from July to September, even though the qualified observation count rose by 28. The August reading of 46.0% sat between the two, confirming a steady three-month contraction in the proportion of qualified answers carrying a shortlist of recommended providers. That mechanical shift is the primary reason most brands show lower coverage in September.

AI Recommendation Trend

The Leadership Pair Is Slipping Together

Orkin and Terminix remain the two dominant brands, but both are now in their second consecutive month of significant decline, and the 1.5-point gap between them has held steady even as both fell sharply from July. Third place also changed hands this month: Aptive, at 16.3%, now sits fractionally ahead of Rentokil at 16.1%. No brand drove the change upward, and the distance between the leaders and the smaller field actually narrowed as the leaders fell — the gap from Hawx Pest Control to Terminix closed from 54.9 points in July to 38.6 points in September, and the gap from Hawx to Orkin closed from 55.9 to 40.1 points.

What Changed This Month

Orkin

Orkin's valid recommendation coverage fell 14.0 points from 57.8% in July 2026 to 43.8% in September 2026, a significant decline that extended a two-month downward streak. The sharper month-over-month story is the 8.3-point drop from 52.1% in August, also significant. Orkin carried 199 valid recommendations in September versus 246 in July and 230 in August.

The decline is visible across placement quality. Orkin's top-3 rate fell 12.2 points from 51.2% to 39.0%, and its rank-one rate dropped 14.0 points from 34.5% to 20.5%, both significant. Rank-one count fell from 147 in July to 93 in September, and average recommended rank moved from 1.37 to 1.68.

Orkin is not losing visibility: it appeared in 97.1% of qualified observations in September, almost unchanged from 98.1% in July. The brand is losing the top position and shortlist inclusion frequency, not raw presence. When Orkin is recommended, it now appears lower on average, meaning the erosion is in conversion of presence into prime placement.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompt types shifted Orkin out of rank one and out of shortlists entirely, and which brand or brands are taking the slots Orkin lost?

Terminix

Terminix declined 14.5 points from 56.8% in July 2026 to 42.3% in September 2026, the largest baseline-to-current drop in the category and a significant move. Month over month, Terminix fell 8.3 points from 50.6% in August, also significant, marking a two-month downward streak. Terminix carried 192 valid recommendations in September versus 242 in July and 223 in August.

Unlike Orkin, Terminix's rank-one rate moved in the opposite direction of its coverage. Terminix's rank-one share rose 2.2 points from 15.0% in July to 17.2% in September, though that increase was not significant. Rank-one count went from 64 in July to 78 in September, and top-3 rate fell 11.4 points from 49.5% to 38.1%, a significant decline.

The pattern is that Terminix is being removed from shortlists more often, but within the shortlists where it remains, it is holding or slightly improving its position at rank one. Average recommended rank moved from 1.78 to 1.74, confirming placement quality is not the problem; inclusion frequency is.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompts removed Terminix from shortlists entirely, and what distinguishes the prompts where it still reaches rank one?

Aptive

Aptive's coverage fell 7.4 points from 23.7% in July 2026 to 16.3% in September 2026, a significant decline. Month over month, Aptive rose a non-significant 0.4 points from 15.9% in August, its first upward move after the steep July-to-August drop. Aptive carried 74 valid recommendations in September versus 101 in July and 70 in August.

Aptive's raw mention presence fell 4.5 points from 30.3% to 25.8%, a non-significant decline, and its top-3 rate slipped 3.7 points from 14.5% to 10.8%, also non-significant. Rank-one rate stayed at 0.0% across all three months.

The distinction is that Aptive's sharpest decline happened in August, and September shows stabilization at the lower level. The brand is still present in about a quarter of qualified answers, but it converts far less of that presence into top-3 recommendations, and it never appears at rank one in this benchmark's question universe.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompt categories stopped surfacing Aptive at top-3 positions, and which competitor appears in the slot Aptive lost?

Rentokil

Rentokil declined 8.8 points from 24.9% in July 2026 to 16.1% in September 2026, a significant move that extended a two-month downward streak. Month over month, Rentokil fell 3.9 points from 20.0% in August, a non-significant decline. Rentokil carried 73 valid recommendations in September versus 106 in July and 88 in August.

Rentokil's rank-one rate rose 1.1 points from 0.2% in July to 1.3% in September, just at the significance threshold and classified as non-significant. Rank-one count went from 1 in July to 6 in September. Top-3 rate fell a non-significant 2.2 points from 13.4% to 11.2%.

The pattern is a mixed signal: Rentokil is losing overall shortlist inclusion but gaining first-position placements within the smaller set where it appears. Average recommended rank improved from 3.43 to 3.13, and raw presence fell only 2.7 points from 36.6% to 33.9%, a non-significant change.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompts now place Rentokil at rank one, and can that pattern be extended to prompts where it is still absent from shortlists?

Bulwark

Bulwark declined 5.9 points from 9.6% in July 2026 to 3.7% in September 2026, a significant move with a two-month downward streak. Month over month, Bulwark fell 1.3 points from 5.0% in August, a non-significant decline. The brand carried 17 valid recommendations in September versus 41 in July and 22 in August.

Bulwark's raw presence fell 4.8 points from 10.1% to 5.3%, a significant decline. Top-3 rate slipped 1.4 points from 3.8% to 2.4%, non-significant, and rank-one rate fell 0.5 points from 0.9% to 0.4%, also non-significant. Net sentiment eased from 0.98 to 0.75 on mentions, but remained positive.

With counts this small, the September result of 17 valid recommendations is sensitive to a handful of prompts. The brand's sentiment is not the source of the decline; this is a visibility and inclusion signal, with the brand appearing in only 5.3% of qualified answers in September.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompt categories that formerly included Bulwark in shortlists now exclude it, and what differentiates the 17 prompts that still recommend it?

Truly Nolen

Truly Nolen declined 3.5 points from 9.2% in July 2026 to 5.7% in September 2026, a move that met the significance threshold exactly and is classified as a significant decline. Month over month, Truly Nolen rose 0.9 points from 4.8% in August, a non-significant recovery. The brand carried 26 valid recommendations in September versus 39 in July and 21 in August.

Truly Nolen's raw presence fell 6.1 points from 13.6% to 7.5%, a significant decline, and top-3 rate slipped 0.7 points from 3.3% to 2.6%, non-significant. Rank-one rate moved from 0.5% to 0.4%, effectively flat. Net sentiment rose slightly from 0.79 to 0.82.

The September reading shows Truly Nolen stabilizing after the August drop, but at a materially lower level than July. Presence fell by nearly half, and the brand's average rank when recommended moved from 3.9 to 4.5, so the shortlists that still include it place it lower.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompt categories reduced Truly Nolen's mention and shortlist inclusion, and do those prompts cluster around specific service or region queries?

Arrow Exterminators

Arrow Exterminators declined 5.4 points from 13.6% in July 2026 to 8.2% in September 2026, a significant move. The month-over-month reading was flat, with no change from August's 8.2%. Arrow carried 37 valid recommendations in September versus 58 in July and 36 in August.

Arrow's raw presence fell 5.1 points from 18.3% to 13.2%, a significant decline, and top-3 rate dropped 2.4 points from 4.2% to 1.8%, also significant. Rank-one rate stayed at 0.0% across all three months.

The pattern is a coverage problem rather than a positioning problem: Arrow is being left out of more answers before the ranking decision happens. The decline was front-loaded into August, and September held steady at the lower level, suggesting the brand has settled into a reduced presence band.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which surfaces or prompt types reduced their mention of Arrow, and is the drop concentrated in specific geographic or service queries?

Western Exterminator

Western Exterminator declined 4.1 points from 7.0% in July 2026 to 2.9% in September 2026, a significant move with a two-month downward streak. Month over month, Western Exterminator fell 1.2 points from 4.1% in August, non-significant. The brand carried 13 valid recommendations in September versus 30 in July and 18 in August.

Western Exterminator's raw presence fell 5.1 points from 14.8% to 9.7%, significant, and top-3 rate dropped 2.9 points from 4.0% to 1.1%, also significant. Rank-one rate fell from 0.7% to 0.0%, a non-significant move. Net sentiment weakened from 0.57 to 0.34.

With 13 valid recommendations in September, the brand is now at the edge of the benchmark's measurable range. The decline spans presence, top-3 placement, and sentiment, making this the broadest contraction among small-count brands.

Highest-priority diagnostic: Which prompts eliminated Western Exterminator from mention and shortlist, and what changed about the brand's sentiment context in the answers where it still appears?

Buyer-Intent Interpretation

In all three months of the series, the qualified observations fell entirely into the discovery and consideration class. None of the qualified answers in July, August, or September 2026 were classified as comparison or pricing and cost prompts, meaning the benchmark's question universe is currently dominated by "which brand should I choose" queries rather than "how do these brands compare" or "what does this cost" queries.

The commercial implication is that the public benchmark can measure recommendation credit and position, but it cannot yet answer what happens when a buyer asks for a price comparison or a head-to-head evaluation. Those questions may surface in the broader prompt collection, but they did not qualify into the public analysis set in any month of this series. The data supports conclusions about recommendation share and rank, not about how pricing or comparison framing changes those outcomes.

Brand Opportunity Summary

The benchmark identifies where attention is warranted; a company-level analysis is needed to explain why.

Evidence Behind the Benchmark

The aggregate metrics are built from prompt-level observations (query, surface, recommendation outcome, rank, sentiment, and citations where exposed). Company-level analysis can go deeper into prompt, competitor, surface, and evidence patterns. Presence in the benchmark is not automatically treated as proof of causation.

About This Benchmark

This report is part of the CiteWorks Studio AI Industry Market Discovery research program.

• AI Industry Market Discovery Methodology
• AI Industry Market Discovery Metrics
• AI Industry Market Discovery Standards

Report-Specific Interpretation Notes

• Several brands in this vertical have small absolute counts. Bulwark (17 valid recommendations), Hawx Pest Control (17), Western Exterminator (13), Massey Services (21), and Truly Nolen (26) each registered fewer than 30 valid recommendations in September 2026, so their movement should be read as signal to investigate, not as a refined estimate.
• The relative ranking within small-count brands can shift with a handful of prompts. The top two brands (Orkin and Terminix) hold large enough counts that their leadership positions are robust, though both are in significant decline.
• The public metrics use the qualified denominator of 454 observations, not the 800 prompts collected, so every percentage in this report is calculated within the qualified set.
• Directional analysis identifies movement worth investigating; it does not by itself establish the cause of those changes.

Next Step

The Public Benchmark Shows Where a Brand Is Winning or Losing. A Company-Level Audit Shows Why.

Beneath the aggregate percentages sit questions the public benchmark cannot answer: which high-intent prompts a brand wins or loses, which competitor takes the recommendation when a brand drops out, what attributes the AI associates with each option, and which external sources shape the AI's answers. For Orkin and Terminix, both down more than 14 points from July, the commercial question is not whether the contraction happened, but which prompts shifted away from shortlist-style answers and which sources now favor different providers.

A company-specific AI visibility audit maps those prompt, surface, competitor, ranking, sentiment, and evidence-source patterns into a prioritized visibility strategy. The benchmark shows where to look; the audit shows what to change.

Request an AI visibility audit